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Jon Herring |
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Investors who chase last year’s performance usually end up getting burned.
It is a well known phenomenon in the mutual fund industry, for example. Investors look at a previous year or two of performance, see big gains, and then pour their money into that fund. Then what do you know, the next few years that fund is down in the dumps.
What is usually the case is that that fund is invested in a particular sector, economy or investing style that is in favor. But what was in favor last year and the year before is not likely to remain in favor in the year ahead.
Markets change and sectors of the market are constantly rotating from weak to strong. So, if you want to look backwards to determine what to own in the future, don’t look at the sectors that were strong. Look at those that were weak.
By the year 2000, most investors wouldn’t even think of investing in coal or steel or other basic materials. Everybody wanted technology. But technology had been hot for years… too hot. Sure enough, that which had been cold became hot… and that which was hot fell off a cliff.
Over the next several years, basic materials and commodities companies doubled, tripled and quadrupled in value, while technology stocks couldn’t catch a bid.
Every year, Investor’s Daily Edge contributor, Lynn Carpenter puts together a report on the major market sectors, their valuations compared to historical averages and their performance relative to one another. It is an invaluable piece of work. In her 2008 edition, she writes:
“The hottest sectors will tend to rule for no more than 18 months to two years before sliding downward. Sometimes the peak player will only get six months at the top, but two years is the max. That’s it. Don’t expect three-and four-year runs.”
So, what does this have to do with you making money in the months and years to come? I bring this up to draw your attention to a sector that has been sucking wind for about a year. This sector might not turn around in the next three months… but turn around it will. And when it does, the returns could be astronomical.
I’m talking about the junior resource exploration sector. These are the small companies run by highly skilled geologists and resource experts that develop and discover the precious metals and raw materials the world is demanding so voraciously.
Considering that we are about seven years into the commodities bull market, with many natural resources trading near all-time highs, you would think these companies would be flying high. But they’re not.
In fact, the Toronto Venture Exchange (the best general measure of the junior resource sector) is just now recovering from the most deeply oversold condition since the end of 2002. Investor sentiment in this sector has hit an all-time low. Check out the chart below, which plots the TSX against the price of gold.

If you had purchased a basket of high quality junior exploration shares in 2002/2003 you would have gained a couple hundred percent in the two to three years after.
IDE contributor Dr. Rusty McDougal was buying then. One of those stocks he sold for a 9,323% return (no, that’s not a typo). Others he closed out for 3,851%... 3,031%... 2,912%... 2,445%. Not to mention dozens of triple digit gains.
And considering that the “mania phase” of the commodities and precious metals bull market is still ahead, I feel that gains like this are still ahead for investors who take a position today.
Commodities prices remain as strong as ever, which means the companies that produce these commodities are flush with cash. What are they going to do with that cash? They are going to go out and try to replace their reserves.
And since most of the top geologists work for the juniors (75% of all discoveries are made by junior resource companies) the majors will add ounces and tons, not by finding them, but by buying out the juniors that have proven discoveries. As these takeovers are announced in the months and years ahead, it will spark a bull run in the juniors like we haven’t seen in some time. Take your position now for life-changing profits.
Good Trading,
Jon Herring
P.S.
To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.
INTERNAL ENDORSEMENT
Just this
Once
BELIEVE THE HYPE!
It was the email that shocked the investment world.
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options.
But
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to happen again this year, too.
That’s why you must check out the whole
story right
here.
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