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IN THIS ISSUE  
Somebody Poked the Sleeping Dog
It’s All about Something for Nothing
MEET THE TEAM
  MaryEllen Tribby
Publisher
  Jedd Canty
Business Director
  Jon Lewis
Managing Editor
  Nicole Reynolds
Marketing
  Jon Herring
Editor
ANALIST/EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS
  Charles Delvalle
  Andrew M. Gordon
  Dr. Russell McDougal
D.D.S.
  Rick Pendergraft
  Chris Johnson
Tuesday, March 25, 2008

 
  Somebody Poked the Sleeping Dog  
 

 

Rick Pendergraft

Dear Reader,

I have to tell you that I was absolutely shocked on Sunday, March 16, when I heard the news that J.P. Morgan (JPM) was buying Bear Stearns (BSC).  It wasn’t the fact that JPM was buying the troubled broker/dealer; it was the price of $2 per share that shocked me.

Come on, the New York headquarters of Bear Stearns is probably worth that much by itself.  BSC has one of the strongest clearing operations on the Street.  Plus, it’s one of their biggest moneymakers.  And JPM was getting it essentially for free. 

Is anyone shocked that there was a lawsuit filed by the end of the day on Monday?  British billionaire Joe Lewis reportedly was going to lose $1 billion on the deal.  Is anyone shocked that he filed to block the deal? 

Fast forward to yesterday morning and now there is a new offer for $10 per share.  Apparently, BSC shareholders caused enough of a stink to get the deal re-thought. 

This is one of the oddest buyout deals I have ever seen.  When the deal was originally announced, instead of going down to $2.00 (the offer), the stock was trading around $4.00.  Now that the new deal has been announced, the stock is trading at $13.  In most instances, when an offer is made for a buyout, the stock will trade at a 10-percent discount to the offer price.  But not this time.

This makes me think that the Fed forced Bear Stearns’ hand a little on this one.  The stock closes at $30 on Friday and a deal is struck over the weekend for $2?  That smells fishy.  And the Fed had to approve the deal, although I think the Fed was more of a broker on this one.  Did the Fed get a commission on the deal?  Most merger/acquisition brokers get a handsome commission on deals they broker, so what did the Fed get?

Okay, so maybe that is taking things a little too far, but the Fed made this move in an attempt to stabilize the market.  My take is that had the deal not been struck, and BSC declared bankruptcy, the markets would have taken a nosedive.  I’m guessing the indices would have dropped 6-7 percent across the board.  So the Fed did its job by stabilizing the market … but for how long?

Good luck and good trading,

Rick

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

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  It’s All about Something for Nothing  
 

Charles Delvalle

 

It’s been awhile since I talked about monetary policy.  But the temptation is simply too much for me to ignore.

I don’t know why I’m so enthralled with researching taxes.  It’s entertaining cocktail talk, really.  By showing your position on taxes, you say a lot about who you are as a person.

Are you the type of person who goes for a flat tax with no exceptions?  You’ve probably never been poor before.  And you’re also probably a Republican or Libertarian.

What was that?  You want to raise taxes on the rich?  You’re probably a Democrat.

Now of course this doesn’t always work out that way.  And that’s what makes these debates interesting.

That’s why I spoke out and told everyone how I felt about taxation in the United States.  I went on to talk about how tax cuts don’t always pay for themselves and that by making huge, irresponsible tax cuts, you take away from the efficiency that a few, targeted cuts could have.

I also talked about how tax cuts can increase inflation.  That had one of our readers - Mark L. - scratching his head.  So he sent an e-mail asking…

How would inflation go up if taxes are cut "too much"?  What's inflationary about me keeping more of my money to spend the way I want, versus the Government confiscating my money to spend the way it wants?

Mark, the best way to think of it is like this: The government generally uses money to pay off debt, not increase demand.  By giving money back to the taxpayer, you stimulate demand.

Imagine if all taxes were rolled back and everyone had an extra couple hundred bucks to spend. That would certainly add to inflation pressures (since it’s like getting a raise).

But Mark, you also made the statement that…

To combat inflation, we should go back to the gold standard -- and get rid of the Fed:  The Fed prints fiat money, which ultimately fails every time it's tried!

Mark, wouldn’t you say that the gold standard also failed?  If it hadn’t failed, we’d still be using it!

The problem with the gold standard is that it doesn’t follow human nature.  Let’s face it, most people want something for nothing.  If you back every dollar bill with gold and prevent more dollars from being made (because there’s no gold to back it up), then it goes against this idea of something for nothing.

So what would happen if we went back to a gold standard?  Within one or two nasty wars, we’d be right back off of it.  I can almost guarantee that.  How am I so sure?  Because people always want something for nothing.

And if you think about it, this is why we’re in the trouble we’re in.  Politicians promised to give people something for nothing.

Did we do anything to deserve the $600 refund that’s coming to us in May?  Not really.  All we did was get ourselves into this mess.

Did Alaska need a highway to nowhere, bought and paid for by the federal government?  No way.

And finally, is it right for the government to continue to make more money, just because they can’t control spending?  Not at all.  It’s just another example of the government trying to get something for nothing.

If we know that people want something for nothing and that democratically elected governments will eventually give people what they want, how could a resumption of the gold standard ever work? It wouldn’t.

To think it would is to expect a full-on transformation as to how the government is run.  More importantly, you’d need to change human nature.

One more thing about the gold standard is that while it would control inflation better, it also introduces deflation into the equation.  And if you recall, deflation was the number one reason why the Great Depression was as nasty as it was.

Now I know why a lot of resource bugs call for the gold standard.  They like the idea of having money backed by something real and tangible, not an empty promise.  And I have to admit, I’d love to have a chance to walk into the bank and exchange my dollar bills for gold.

But let’s face it, should the financial system collapse today, do you think you could walk out into the middle of financial Armageddon and hand someone some gold in exchange for wheat?  No way.

It’s not like Iraqis were handing each other gold bars in exchange for Nikes when Iraq was taken over by the U.S.  In that situation, I’d have much rather had oil, not gold.

And let’s not forget the millions of people just aching to get into your home to find something worth taking.  If you have gold, you might end up being killed as it’s stolen from you.

Some might say that at least they can take their gold, go into another country, and do business. Well, if the U.S. financial system collapses, it will take the world’s financial system down with it. Don’t forget, the dollar is the standard.  And countries have trillions of them sitting in their bank accounts.

While everyone is predicting the death of fiat money, I happen to think it simply won’t come around.  Should the world financial system collapse, it will take all of a few weeks for world banks to pardon all debt and set currencies back to some “fair value.”

Don’t get me wrong, there will be some insanity going on.  But it won’t be the end.

It’ll just be a hot fix that leads to the resumption of the norm … a resumption of life how we know it.

To your success,

Charles

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

 

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