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IN THIS ISSUE  
Not Until the Housing Market Improves
I’m a Socialist?
MEET THE TEAM
  MaryEllen Tribby
Publisher
  Jedd Canty
Business Director
  Jon Lewis
Managing Editor
  Nicole Reynolds
Marketing
  Jon Herring
Editor
ANALIST/EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS
  Charles Delvalle
  Andrew M. Gordon
  Dr. Russell McDougal
D.D.S.
  Rick Pendergraft
  Chris Johnson
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
  Not Until the Housing Market Improves  

 

 

 

Rick Pendergraft

Normally in this column, I would address any negative feedback I’ve received in recent weeks.  But I can’t do that this week because I haven’t received any negative feedback.  I was surprised that I didn’t see any negative comments about my article on selling USA Corp.  I guess with the present situation, there was not much of an argument to be made. 

Since I haven’t received any disagreeing emails, I thought I would try a different approach.  Over the course of the last few weeks, I have been a guest on several radio shows.  One question I’m constantly asked is how long and how deep I think this economic slowdown will run.  My answer keeps coming back to the housing market.

I don’t think the economy will turn around until the housing market turns around or at least stabilizes.  And given how many homes are on the market right now, this could take a while.  The inventory is very high right now, and it is a buyers market.  The housing market needs to burn through the inventory of foreclosure properties and the glut of builder inventory that is being dumped on the market.  Once this inventory has been depleted, only then can the housing market stabilize.

So how long is that going to take?  Of course I can’t answer with certainty, but I don’t see the housing market turning around this year.  I think if the Fed keeps lowering rates, which appears probable, I can see things starting to get better in the first half of next year.  Once the housing market turns around, I can see the economy starting to improve shortly thereafter.

So my ultimate answer to how long this economic slowdown will last hinges on the housing market.  However, I don’t see this recession being as long or as deep as the one we went through back in 2000-2002.

Good luck and good trading,

Rick

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

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  I’m a Socialist?  
 

Charles Delvalle

 

Dear Reader,

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been talking a lot about taxes. 

I didn’t talk about taxes to pursue a political agenda.  Granted, one reader sure thought I did.  He wrote in telling us he’d unsubscribe because of my “socialist slant.”

So now I’m a socialist?  Is it because of my long hair?

Listen, I’m not a Republican and I’m certainly not a Democrat.  I’m just someone who wants to see the government work more for everybody involved.  If that means digging deep and uncovering things some people don’t want to hear, then so be it.

As it turns out, there were a bunch of readers who found plenty of value in this series of articles.  Take a look at some of them:

Your article was very lucid and succinct.  I sent the last portion of it to several people for their consideration.  Thanking you for this refinement, I am.  Gratefully yours,
-- Norman S.

I will be very surprised if you receive any well documented information demonstrating that tax cuts actually increase income over the long term.  Although many complain about the tax rates in the US, our tax system (while overly complex) does not result in taxes that approach the tax load of many countries.
-- Bruce B.

Hi, I wanted to let you know how much I appreciated your article on the effect of tax cuts on revenue.  For many on the right, tax cuts have become an article of faith, with no reliance on actual facts and figures.  I have never figured out how anyone can call themselves conservative by calling for more tax cuts while seemingly condoning the absolutely drunken spending spree this country has been on in the last 8 years.  It’s not conservative, it’s simply nuts. Thanks for your good work.
-- Gary P.

Bruce, Norman, and Gary, I thank you for writing in and letting us know how you feel.

With that said, there was an overwhelming response to these articles.  And they had nothing to do with tax cuts.

It’s All About Spending, Baby!

Every time I get my paycheck, a third of it is missing.

Now, I understand the government needs some of this money to run properly.  And I have no issues with that (even if the income tax is illegal!).  But what I do have issue with is what the government chooses to spend that money on.

Bridges to nowhere … star wars systems … and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are just some of the things that upset me.  And I’m sure there are many of you out there who feel the same way.

I also think a lot of federally run programs should be run by the states.  Why, for instance,
does the federal government dictate how states should educate their children?  We then get a bunch of half-baked proposals that do little to help anyone.

And you know that Bush tax break that’s coming in May?  That’s $168 billion that didn’t need to be spent.  Now we’ll run a $400 billion deficit this year.

If that isn’t dollar negative, I don’t know what is.

So let me make this clear, dearreader: Runaway spending is the devil.

What this Means to Your Portfolio

In the end, the government will overpromise and overspend every chance it gets.  And nobody, not McCain nor Obama, will come anywhere near implementing the types of changes the government needs to fix this problem.

With that in mind, there are a few things that will help you:

  1. The dollar will continue to drop in the long term
  2. U.S. growth will never reach full potential as the government hinders progress
  3. Sporadic tax breaks will help industries boom AND crash.  They’ll boom while the tax break thrives.  And then they’ll crash as the tax break gets taken back.

These three things alone give you the ammunition you need to make money in the markets, no matter what the government does.

For example, if you see the solar power sector is doing well thanks to big tax breaks that are about to expire, then you wait for the expiration to happen and short U.S.-based solar companies.

By knowing the dollar will continue tumbling; you could leverage yourself by buying gold or silver.

In the end, playing the markets isn’t about right-wing versus left-wing ideas.  It’s about knowing as much as you can about the things that affect the market.

That means going out of your own box and examining ideas you believe are wrong.

If you do this, you’ll quickly find out that things are never as cut and dry as they seem.  Plus, it will help you get better at putting your money to work for you.

-- Charles

P.S.  To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.

 

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