You can’t go back. So don’t assume that as the U.S. and the West recovers, they’ll attract foreign capital just like they did before the recession. It’s a far different landscape now. The easy-credit bubbles are gone. And they’ve left us with a hellacious debt burden.

The U.S. debt is expected to zoom to $16.2 trillion by 2012, almost equal to its projected GDP. Italy’s debt is expected to reach 120% next year. France’s debt will approach 90% next year (if President Nicolas Sarkozy goes ahead with his fiscal blitz). All told, by next year, Europe’s debt should rise to about 80 percent of GDP. And then there’s Japan. Its public debt is headed toward unfathomable depths. It should reach 240% of GDP by 2014.

After buying $600 billion in U.S. assets last year, China, for example, is having second thoughts. It won’t come close to matching that number this year. And China has made it very clear that not even relatively cheap assets available in the U.S. will lure Chinese investment money.

In an interview published in China’s state-controlled media, the chairman of China Development Bank said Chinese foreign investment won’t target Western economies. “Everyone is saying we should go to the western markets to scoop up [underpriced assets]. I think we should not go to America’s Wall Street.

So where will China go? The bank chairman says China “should look more to places with natural and energy resources.” That would be Africa, Russia, Australia, plus other places.

The resource war is gaining steam. When the global economy recovers, it’s a sure bet that commodity prices will start getting expensive again. China has concluded that it’s a better deal to buy the mines now rather than the commodities later.

Resource countries are going to be the main beneficiaries. South Africa is known for its metals and mining and gold industry. The ETF covering it, iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA), is up 27.6% year-to-date.