It’s easy to identify where jobs are growing and where they’re shrinking. Just go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. But in a report issued last week, the White House said that future job growth will look a lot different from past job growth.

You can use job growth to see which sectors are bound for expansion and which are bound for consolidation and then invest accordingly. So how much should you depend on the White House to figure out future job growth?

I’d be careful if I were you. The White House said that job growth would be concentrated in health care, education, and some parts of the manufacturing sector including aerospace and construction.

Of these jobs-growth sectors, health care has been in the news the most. Congress is preparing to pass a universal health care bill which will increase the number of people covered by health care (but won’t really be universal). More business for hospitals and health care providers, right?

Not so quick. 6.5 million people have lost their jobs since the recession began. And until we know differently, it’s much more expensive to get insurance when your employer isn’t subsidizing it. We could easily add another 1 million to the unemployment rolls by the end of the year.

People who are out of work and out of health insurance won’t be spending as much on medical bills. Those newly employed health workers the White House is talking about will be treating a lot more people on Medicaid. The demand for surgeries, drugs and hospital beds could all go down.

Health care is supposed to be one of the safe bets in the economy. But I have my doubts. If you’re looking to avoid risk, stay away from investing in HMO providers and hospital REITs.