Bullies Rule: Buy Them

Native Tennessean John Templeton saw Hitler’s army roll up one Central European country after another and then take aim at Western Europe. Companies left and right were falling into bankruptcy. Stocks were nose-diving, many going for under historic lows.
So what did John do at the height of this nightmarish freefall?

He was so sure that what he was doing couldn’t fail that in 1939 he borrowed $10,000 from his boss. He then carefully selected 104 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange to invest in.

By the time the war was over, 100 of the 104 stocks had zoomed up in the post-war market surge.

Templeton made a 500 percent profit in four years. He repaid his boss and had $40,000 left over.

By striking when the iron was hot, Templeton went on to become one of America’s most successful and rich investors.

And he wasn’t the only one…

At the same time that John was seeing his bets pay off, a WWII-bomber borrowed money from the Seagram’s family to buy a struggling charter airline for $60,000. The Air Force vet, by the name of Kirk Kerkorian, built the fleet on the cheap with surplus Air Force bombers which began carrying freight back and forth between America and Europe. The small nearly worthless charter airline grew as trade between America and Europe exploded.

Kerkorian eventually sold his company for $104 million and went on to become a billionaire – investing in everything from autos to gambling, including majority shares in MGM.

At the same time, high-school dropout David Murdoch was seeing the same historic opportunity in this rock-bottom market and borrowed $1,800 to buy a diner. He flipped it for a small gain and bought another property at a huge discount. He made a bigger gain. The gains kept getting bigger and bigger until David parlayed them into a $4.4 billion fortune.

Three men. Three fortunes. But what does this mean to you?

Let’s now fast-forward to the present. They don’t call this rally a “sucker’s rally” for nothing. It rose on fumes. It certainly didn’t rise on earnings. Take a look at the S&P’s earnings in the past 20 months. They’ve nosedived from $80 to $7 – the biggest drop ever recorded.

Market-Earnings Have Dropped Like a Rock

The S&P’ earnings performance in the 1940’s was bad. Today the S&P is doing even worse.

We saw a severe bear market in the 1940s and we’re seeing one today that is just as serious.

The same thing also happened in the 1920s. By 1921, the stock market had fallen by 45.6 percent. While many people were standing around wondering what to do with their money, some individuals were busy making a fortune off of the stock market.

The market climbed 495 percent over the next decade.

In the early 1940s – when Templeton, Kerkorian and Murdoch were taking advantage of ridiculous low-prices – the market climbed 170 percent over the next decade.

And like the 1920s and 1940s, stock prices will be dropping to irresistible bargain prices once again.

The two main takeaways here are that…
1.    You should buy when assets are priced as if the world is about to end.
2.    Our current “Great Recession” has given you a gift of a lifetime.

I’ve Waited 30 Years for This Moment

Finally, the opportunity to capture oversized profits is resurfacing again…

John Templeton bought into a few companies that washed out of the market. You should do it a little differently. The market has been beating up companies indiscriminatingly – the big with the small … the strong with the weak.  You don’t have to buy small and risky stocks, not with some of the market’s biggest companies going for 40-50 cents on the dollar.

If these “best of the best” companies just go back up with the market, you’ll pocket over four times your investment in the next two years. But they should do much better than merely track the market.

This recession in not only a gift to us, it’s also a gift of a lifetime for these big “global industrial merchants” for these three reasons…
1.    They can take advantage of the dollar’s weakness by selling their products overseas cheaper than usual.
2.    They have the flexibility to pick and choose what markets to target from dozens of countries around the world. The world’s economies may have fallen in lockstep, but they’re rebounding at various rates. For example, Korea, Brazil, and China are showing a little more bounce in their step than many countries.
3.    This is the biggest reason: These companies have turned into bullies.

In times like these, I love big companies that ruthlessly take customers away from weaker companies cutting back…

I love big companies that are coming out with newer and better products (the iPhone 3G S, for example) while other companies are reducing R&D…

And I love big companies that scoop up their small nearly broke rivals for pennies on the dollar.

Investing in the market bullies makes sense, especially when the market has beaten up so many of the smaller companies to a pulp. It makes it easy for these bullies to finish them off.

Of course, these companies aren’t immune to the effects of a bad economy. Their sales are off. Plus they’re watching how they spend money.

But a bully losing 10 pounds is not the same as a 95-pound weakling losing 10 pounds. These companies are big and strong. Many of them have no cash worries and have actually increased dividends into the teeth of this recession.

Dividend hikers used to outnumber slashers 15-1. Now the slashers rule. They outnumber hikers by a 4:3 margin.

These corporate bullies are using this period as a launching pad to increase market share and dominate the competition in the future. Investors should be pouring into these companies. But they’re not. And, for the most part, their prices are way down.

THIS IS THE PERFECT SET-UP.

As the market goes down and pushes prices to lows not seen in decades, you should be adding these big companies to your portfolio.

Bullies may not be likable. But they make great long-term investments. In a horrible global market, they’re the ones getting bigger and stronger.

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This post was written by:

Andrew Gordon

Andrew Gordon - who has written 250 investment articles on Investors Daily Edge.


After earning his Masters from the London School of Economics, Andrew has enjoyed a 25-year business career that has taken him around the world. He’s been involved in infrastructure in Indonesia, port development in Russia, road construction in Malaysia and environmental services in China. He’s also authored six books on the global markets, including China’s Oil and Gas Industry, and The World Coal Market. Andrew has spent his entire career evaluating companies and appraising investments and he is a proponent of the idea that a healthy portfolio is not dependent on flourishing markets. He specializes in identifying deep value companies with a solid margin of safety as well as income investments with a strong potential for capital gains. He has also become a leading expert in utilizing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to profit from rising and falling market sectors. Andrew is currently the Editor-in-Chief of three monthly investment research services – INCOME, Red Flag Insider, and The Wealth Advantage. He resides in Delray Beach, FL and Catonsville, MD, with his wife and two children.


One Response to “Bullies Rule: Buy Them”

  1. Anwar ul Haq says:

    I found this article very informative and I am really impressed by the insight of Mr. Andrew.
    In my opinion all these invesments can reap benfits only when they are for long term spanned over decades.
    As regards time of investment I believe it is the ideal time as all stocks are at the lowest ebb. They are bound to rebound shortly.
    I am interested in other services offered by IDE.
    Regards,

    Anwar ul Haq

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