We’ve come a long way down from the boozy heights of economic prosperity. But according to economist David Rosenberg, we still have a long way to go.
$6 trillion - The private sector credit debt we need to get rid of. Private debt is still far above our national income levels. The historical norm is 80 percent.
$1 trillion - The amount of excess capacity which remains in the US economy. It is not just autos either, many industries have to cut back.
70% - The US’s share of global consumer spending/GDP, which Rosenberg predicts will now revert to its long-run average of 64 per cent.
A long period of leveraged prosperity has dug a deep hole. Climbing out of this hole is going to take a lot longer. We’re only half way there until mortgage losses peak…
Only a third of the way until credit card and consumer losses top off…
And we’re at the beginning stages of seeing commercial and industrial loans go bad.
The beginning of the end? If only. If the depression were a baseball game, we’d be in about the fourth inning.
After earning his Masters from the London School of Economics, Andrew has enjoyed a 25-year business career that has taken him around the world. He’s been involved in infrastructure in Indonesia, port development in Russia, road construction in Malaysia and environmental services in China. He’s also authored six books on the global markets, including China’s Oil and Gas Industry, and The World Coal Market.
Andrew has spent his entire career evaluating companies and appraising investments and he is a proponent of the idea that a healthy portfolio is not dependent on flourishing markets. He specializes in identifying deep value companies with a solid margin of safety as well as income investments with a strong potential for capital gains. He has also become a leading expert in utilizing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to profit from rising and falling market sectors.
Andrew is currently the Editor-in-Chief of three monthly investment research services – INCOME,Red Flag Insider, and The Wealth Advantage. He resides in Delray Beach, FL and Catonsville, MD, with his wife and two children.
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