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Thursday Oct. 26, 2006
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The Perfect Resource Exploration Stock: Part II

By Rusty McDougal

An article I wrote last week detailed the genesis of perfect resource exploration stocks. This week we will delve into the subsequent stages through which start-up companies evolve, from concept to implementation.

Again, the companies that perform grass roots exploration provide the highest amount of leverage, but of course they also come with the greatest risk. But that risk can be reduced through diversification and prudent research.

The perfect exploration stock will be adept at finding grass roots projects with vast potential. They may control as few as six such properties or as many as thirty.

The properties will ideally have a broad spectrum of target minerals… gold, silver, diamonds, zinc, lead, copper, uranium, molybdenum etc.

Oil and gas explorers should also have multiple irons in the fire by holding several properties. This provides more chances for success as well as a degree of diversification for you.

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Our perfect explorers will now perform early stage exploration on these properties. The goal is to find promising results so as to interest a larger company in footing the bill for the more expensive development of the property.

The following quote is from AuEx Ventures, Inc., a Canadian junior that adheres closely to this joint venture model:

“AuEx Ventures, Inc. is a Nevada focused precious metals exploration company with a current portfolio of 15 exploration projects in Nevada controlling over 40,000 acres of unpatented mining claims and fee land. Ten of the projects are in joint venture agreements with seven companies who provide exploration funding. The company applies the extensive Nevada exploration experience and high-end technical skills of its founders to search for and acquire new precious metal exploration projects that are then offered for joint venture.”

You want as many quality joint ventures as you can get within your company portfolio. It’s hardly surprising how many more discoveries are made when funds are being spent and drills are turning.

What are the terms of these joint ventures?

It’s pretty much “Let’s Make a Deal” as you will see a broad spectrum of arrangements made. Often the major company will buy in to the project by committing several million dollars in exploration funds over a two or three year time frame. This will entitle the major to a 60% or so interest in the ultimate value of the project. Our smaller grass roots explorer will often get a carried interest from that point forward.

There may also be incentives for the major to earn an additional percentage of the deal by paying for feasibility studies, mine construction, etc.

With joint ventures in place our start up company will start receiving more market attention. The share price and market cap should respond accordingly as the market understands the company’s potential.

Exploration progress may now take the company’s market cap towards the $150 million range. As an early investor you may have purchased stock when the market cap was as low as $15 million to $30 million. That would be a five to tenfold return, and we’re not yet at the discovery stage. Prudence would dictate that you take some profits off the table during such an opportune time frame.

Some of these joint ventures will eventually lead to key discoveries and some will not. Either way, our project generator will continue to fill the pipeline with more projects and more joint ventures.

The goal is to continue moving forward until there is an actual discovery. As the following quote from another Canadian junior, Cornerstone Capital Resources, Inc. suggests, frugality is a key factor:

“Of the $7.5 million in 2006 projected expenditures, fully 90% is provided by our joint venture partners, maintaining Cornerstone’s Treasury position at a very healthy level. As of September 18th, 2006, our Treasury stood at $7.1 million and we expect to finish the year in a similar position.”

Is it OK to stray from the joint venture model?

A start up company must have an extraordinary reason for going it alone. If initial exploration results are clearly of a world class nature it actually can be prudent to hold on to 100% of the deal. Virginia Gold did exactly this with their Canadian Eleonor gold property and ended up selling it outright to Goldcorp in a deal valued at $644 million to Virginia shareholders.

Whether you invest in start-ups or in companies further along in the exploration process you will come to fully appreciate this project generation and joint venture model. So, too, will your bank account.

These are the companies to find!

Invest Resourcefully,

Rusty

P.S. If you are interested in investing in highly promising, early stage resource exploration companies, the folks at Global Resource Investments are particularly adept at finding companies that adhere to the model I described in this article. The number there is 800-477-7853 and you can ask for Luke Smith or Ben Miller.

This does not constitute an endorsement from Investor’s Daily Edge, and no remuneration shall be received, should you decide to do business with Global Resource Investments.

 

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Market Watch

Opportunity in Amazon

By Rick Pendergraft

Amazon.com reported earnings Tuesday evening that were much better than expected, or should I say they weren't as bad as expected. The company earned five cents per share versus the three cents analysts were expecting. As a result of the better-than-expected earnings and a very bearish backdrop, AMZN shares gapped higher by more than 10%. 

But, this is yesterday’s news. What we want to know is how can you benefit from the jump in AMZN shares?

Had you been watching Amazon after earnings in July, you would have seen a very different story. After the company reported disappointing earnings, the shares dropped 21% on extremely high volume of 77 million shares. The huge spike in volume was a clear sign that buyers totally capitulated to the sellers.

At the same time there was a sentiment backdrop of poor analyst ratings and a high short interest ratio. All of this together was a good sign that bearish sentiment had reached an extreme, which made it an opportune time to go long AMZN. After consolidating between $26 and $28 for the next few weeks. The stock began to move steadily higher.

Fast forward to today. Now you have the company reporting earnings that are better than expected, revenues that are better than expected, and margins that are improving.

With two "buy" ratings, six "hold" ratings, and six "sell" ratings, there is a lot of room for analysts to upgrade the stock over the coming weeks. The short interest ratio is also high, at 6.54. You can bet that a number of these short sellers jumped in to cover yesterday, but there is still a lot of existing short interest that should add to buying pressure in the days and weeks ahead. I expect a period of consolidation and then for shares of Amazon to head higher.

 

 

 
The Market Minute
 

The Fed Speaks... Yesterday, private bankers from the Federal Reserve got together to plot the course of the world’s largest ‘free market’ economy. As expected, the Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. The lone dissenter was once again Jeffrey Lacker, Fed President from Richmond, who voted to increase rates to 5.5%. The language was very similar to last month's meeting, in that the core inflation remains elevated, but it is the Fed's belief that these pressures will moderate over time. Despite the same message as last month, bonds rallied sharply after the announcement.

In The Markets
 
 
Last
Change
YTD
Dow
12134.68
none6.80
13.22%
Nasdaq
2356.59
none11.75
6.86%
S&P 500
1382.22
none4.84
10.73%
Gold
591.00
none3.80
11.51%
Silver
11.91
none0.12
31.60%
Oil
61.58
none2.23
-2.25%
Nat Gas
8.33
none0.04
-20.21%

 

 

Newsworthy
 

“Hackers have been breaking into customer accounts at large online brokerages in the United States and making unauthorized trades worth millions of dollars as part of a fast-growing new form of online fraud under investigation by federal authorities.
E-Trade Financial Corp., the nation's fourth-largest online broker, said last week that "concerted rings" in Eastern Europe and Thailand caused their customers $18 million in losses in the third quarter alone.

“Another company, TD Ameritrade, the third-largest online broker, also has suffered losses from customer account fraud, but a spokeswoman declined to quantify the amount yesterday. "It is an industry problem," spokeswoman Katrina Becker said. "It does continue to grow."

“...perpetrators are breaking into customer accounts and buying shares of thinly traded, microcap securities, also known as penny stocks. The hacker gains access using the customer's user name and password, then liquidates that person's existing stock holdings and uses the proceeds to buy shares in the microcap. The goal, regulators said, is to boost the price of a stock the hacker has already bought at a lower price in another account. The hacker then liquidates the stock and wires the money either to an offshore account or through a series of straw men, or dummy corporations...”

-- Washington Post

Meet The Team
 

MaryEllen Tribby - Publisher
Jon Herring - Editor
Nicole Reynolds - Marketing

Analysts / Editorial Contributors
Marc Charles
Charles Delvalle
Andrew M. Gordon
Dr. Russell Mcdougal D.D.S.
Rick Pendergraft
Dr. Richard Smith, Ph.D.

 

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