The markets are closed today to celebrate Memorial Day. So rather than talk about the market, I want to talk about the United States.
On this day when we pay tribute to the men and women that have served this country over the last 232 years, I have a special request of IDE readers. Now you might ask why I have the right to ask any favors of you the reader, but you see today is my birthday. So consider my request a birthday present.
Are you ready for my request?
I want each and every person reading this article, especially those readers here in the States, to remember what this country was like right after the attacks of September 11, 2001. Do you remember how everyone seemed to be playing on the same team?
The country bonded together like I have never seen before. People were more polite to one another. Drivers were more courteous to one another. It was amazing to see an entire country’s personality change. But it did. The change was brought about by an incredible and heinous tragedy.
But here we sit, a mere six and half years later, and a lot of the brotherhood is gone. The political bickering of the two parties is as bad as I have ever seen in my 41 years on this Earth.
As the Managing Editor of IDE, I am copied on all of the emails we receive. I don’t normally venture into the political realm in my writing, but a number of our contributors do and as a result receive numerous politically charged emails. The outright hatred for one party or the other is incredible.
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On occasion my articles have toed the line of being political and on those occasions I have received emails calling me a *&*^^ Democrat or a &^*&^% Republican. And yes I have been accused of being both. I guess I am doing a good job of disguising my political beliefs when I am accused of being both a Republican and a Democrat.
The truth is I don’t care about either party. I am an American first and foremost. As are the people that write in calling me names. And regardless of your political beliefs, if you are a citizen of the United States, you should remember that we are free to express our opinions and have different beliefs because of the men and women that have defended this country.
So if you would, grant me this wish. There are over 235,000 subscribers to IDE and I want each and every one of you to think about the immediate days and weeks after 9/11 and lay down your political beliefs for a while and show your fellow countrymen the respect and courtesy we all deserve.
Hopefully I am not asking too much and I wish you and your loved ones all the best. Try to do at least one thing today that honors the men and women of our armed forces, both past and present.
I want to leave you with the lyrics to Lee Greenwood’s God Bless the USA, it is one of the things I remember most about September 11. I was driving home that night when the song came on the radio and I could hardly drive due to the tears in my eyes. I can hardly listen to it anymore without tearing up because it serves as a reminder of what happened.
If tomorrow all the things were gone,
I’d worked for all my life.
And I had to start again,
with just my children and my wife.
I’d thank my lucky stars,
to be living here today.
‘Cause the flag still stands for freedom,
and they can’t take that away.
And I’m proud to be an American,
where at least I know I’m free.
And I won't forget the men who died,
who gave that right to me.
And I gladly stand up,
next to you and defend her still today.
‘Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land,
God bless the USA.
From the lakes of Minnesota,
to the hills of Tennessee.
Across the plains of Texas,
From sea to shining sea.
From Detroit down to Houston,
and New York to L.A.
Well there's pride in every American heart,
and it's time we stand and say.
That I’m proud to be an American,
where at least I know I’m free.
And I won't forget the men who died,
who gave that right to me.
And I gladly stand up,
next to you and defend her still today.
‘Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land,
God bless the USA.
And I’m proud to be and American,
where at least I know I’m free.
And I won't forget the men who died,
who gave that right to me.
And I gladly stand up,
next to you and defend her still today.
‘Cause there ain’t no doubt I love this land,
God bless the USA
Good luck and good trading,
Rick
This is a short week with the market closed today, but the rest of the week has enough reports to keep us busy.
When the market opens back up tomorrow, the Consumer Confidence numbers for May will be released. The expectation is for a slight decline, down to a rating of 61. I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes in lower. Expectations make up 60 percent of the total index, and current conditions account for the other 40 percent. The “current conditions” part is worsening in consumer’s minds with every up-tick in food and energy prices. The “expectations” portion has to be hurting confidence with every new article that prices are only going to continue climbing. These two items together could possibly push the index lower than expected.
The New Home Sales report also comes out on Tuesday, and I expect the report to meet expectations for a decline in sales. I think this may be one of the last months showing a decline, since sales of building supplies increased in April. This means we may see an increase in new home sales around mid-summer.
With the consumer stretched as thin as they are now, it should surprise no one that the Durable Orders report on Wednesday is expected to show a decline of 0.70 percent. Until disposable income increases, big ticket items will be a luxury most can’t afford.
The Personal Income and Personal Spending reports are both expected to show declines this month, which comes as no surprise. Times are only going to get tougher for consumers as the economy slows and food and energy prices increase. I would expect the figures to come in closer to 0.10 percent.
The preliminary GDP released on Thursday is the final report of note this week. It is expected to show a growth of 0.90%. Given that the Fed just reduced it’s own outlook on the GDP (in the FOMC minutes from last Wednesday), I find it highly unlikely that we will post such a gain. I think a growth rate of 0.40-0.50 percent is more likely.
Date
Time (ET)
Statistic
For
Market Expects
Prior
27-May
10:00 AM
Consumer Confidence
May
61
62.3
27-May
10:00 AM
New Home Sales
Apr
520K
526K
28-May
8:30 AM
Durable Orders
Apr
-0.70%
-0.30%
29-May
8:30 AM
Chain Deflator-Prel.
Q1
2.60%
2.40%
29-May
8:30 AM
GDP-Prel.
Q1
0.90%
0.60%
30-May
8:30 AM
Personal Income
Apr
0.20%
0.30%
30-May
8:30 AM
Personal Spending
Apr
0.20%
0.40%
30-May
8:30 AM
PCE Core Inflation
Apr
0.10%
0.20%
30-May
9:45 AM
Chicago PMI
May
49
48.3
30-May
10:00 AM
Mich Sentiment-Rev.
May
NA
59.5
Low volume can't save market… as is usually the case on Fridays heading into a long weekend, volume was low on Friday. Even though activity was down, the market slipped as the Existing Home sales report showed inventories at a 23-year high. GM didn't help the markets either, as they announced the impact the American Axle strike had on the bottom line. These two items led the S&P to its third big loss for the week and the biggest weekly decline since March.
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